MATRIX of PES (anti-epidemic system)
What is PES? (anti-epidemic system of the Czech Republic)
PES is one of the tools for evaluating and solving the covid-19 epidemic in the Czech Republic. The main goal of the new PES assessment is to increase the readability and predictability of the current epidemiological situation.
The measures taken will be linked to 5 basic levels of preparedness,
The PES clearly shows the current situation in individual regions and at the same time shows whether the citizens should prepare for the loosening or tightening of the established measures.
What is a risk index?
The risk index is a scale on which the risk of covid-19 epidemics is assessed. This index is calculated both for the whole Czech Republic and for individual regions. The index is developed in broad cooperation with experts from universities, the Ministry of Health of the Czech Republic and the UZIS CZ. It will be calculated by the UZIS CZ.
The evaluation takes place on a scale of 0 - 100%, where 0% does not represent any risk, 100% the highest risk.
The degree of risk can easily be derived from the calculated risk index.
How is the risk index calculated?
The risk index adds up points for the evaluation of four risk indicators related to the status and course of the covid-19 epidemic.
- How many people have been infected recently? Rating: 0-20 points
14-day numbers positive for covid-19 (per 100,000 inhabitants).
- How many seniors have been infected recently? Rating: 0-20 points
14-day numbers of seniors positive for covid-19 (per 100,000 population aged 65+).
- The number of infected people is growing - is the virus spreading in the population? Rating: 0-30 points. Simplified calculation of the reproduction number.
- Can we catch infected effectively and quickly? Rating: 0-30 points. Average positivity of tests for the last 7 days.
The calculated index values are not automatically transferred to the readiness levels, they are always evaluated by experts.
When will it be released?
The reason for the decision to move to a lower state of alert may be in particular:
- a decrease in the risk index and its persistence at a lower level for 7 days
- significant improvement of the overall epidemic situation according to the evaluation of hygienists and epidemiologists.
When will the measures be tightened?
The reason for the decision to move to a higher level of alert may be in particular:
- an increase in the risk index or its persistence at a higher level for 3 days and longer
- significant deterioration of other epidemic parameters relevant to the degree of risk (risk development of tracing or testing, increase in significant outbreaks)
- significant deterioration of morbidity indicators, especially in connection with limited capacities of health services (eg infection of medical staff, loss of capacity for other reasons, etc.)
Will the measures apply nationally or regionally?
The evaluation takes place both for the whole Czech Republic and for individual regions.
With a high risk (alert level 3 and above), the alert levels are announced nationwide, regardless of differences between regions.
At lower degrees of risk, i.e. if the situation is under control according to all parameters, it is possible to proceed with the disintegration according to individual regions and to meet more regions with less burden.